Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black ...
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Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the `impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.
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Haven't read the book yet. Bought it ahead for November's book club discussion. Plan on reading it this fall.
John T
Feb 13, 2011
Interesting but . . . .
This book has some interesting ideas, but it is somewhat annoying. The author is full of himself and wanders off the subject. However, it does get better as you work through it.
Beanie3
May 13, 2010
The author's snarky tone turned me off. He came off as such a smirking know-it-all that I didn't care what startling new conclusions he had reached.
crunch
Apr 22, 2010
an entertainment lacking in quantitative support
The book arrived with an unreported broken binding.
Taleb's content is entertaining and a useful if informal index of authors he mentions in passing, however as a standalone piece, it lacks substantive value (which I'm sure Taleb himself would admit).
sypsok
Jun 25, 2009
Nice book. Intellectual and eye - opening. I recommend to read this book for everyone interested in different point of view.
