Throughout history, great powers have fallen because they failed to anticipate new threats to their security. Now strategy expert Krepinevich forecasts the most horrifying and yet very possible dangers facing America.
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Throughout history, great powers have fallen because they failed to anticipate new threats to their security. Now strategy expert Krepinevich forecasts the most horrifying and yet very possible dangers facing America.
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This book has a published date of February 2009 which must be born in mind as the author uses a combination of real and fictional footnotes in each of his scenarios making them seem more authentic. All seven are plausible and elements of some have already occurred. The subtitle shows them being militarily based, which they are because it is anticipated the military will deal with all of the issues. Be it an implosion of foreign countries, actual attacks in the US or world wide attacks on lines of communication (both physical and digital the military is expected to be involved. Even the Pandemic scenario calls for the use of the military. [I had finished reading the Pandemic scenario on 5 August 2012, the next morning I looked at the front page of the Metro section of the Washington Post to see the headline advising people going to county fairs refrain from petting animals because of the spread of Swine Flu.]
As the author says, the scenarios are to point out problems not present solutions. In the introduction he provides some historical background regarding military exercises and how they often change from free play to scripted while the last war is fought. In my personal experience, the 'lessons learned' from exercises are too often merely lessons noted because little is done to change attitudes.
Unfortunately, all of these scenarios are militarily based. Our nation needs more internal infrastructure scenarios, e.g. the breakdown of the power grid, the deterioration of underground pipelines, the pollution of aquifers, degradation of transportation routes. While more than half our national budget is being spent on the military, the nation's infrastructure has gone wanting.
