Despite the ensuing global recession and the extreme volatility in oil prices associated with it, geologist Deffeyes concludes that world oil production will continue to follow a bell-shaped curve, with the smoothed-out peak somewhere in the middle of the first decade of this millennium.
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Despite the ensuing global recession and the extreme volatility in oil prices associated with it, geologist Deffeyes concludes that world oil production will continue to follow a bell-shaped curve, with the smoothed-out peak somewhere in the middle of the first decade of this millennium.
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BookReview9
by Charles R. Haller
Deffeyes, Kenneth S., 2005, Beyond Oil. The View from Hubbert's Peak: NY, Hill and Wang, 202 p.
Deffeyes, Kenneth S., 2010, When Oil Peaked: NY, Hill and Wang, 152 p.
As a former petroleum geologist for almost 30 years, plus having spent another decade or so studying geology, I enjoyed these two slim cvolumes by Deffeyes even though they are now somewhat dated. Although the average public may consider the subject to be rather dull, Deffeyes is on the right track in being concerned with future energy needs, a subject which has been swept under the rug by the current trend of promoting "global warming." He enlivens the two books spiced with various pithy comments.
"Hubbert's Peak" refers to M. King Hubbert who in 1969 developed a theory that oil production (and gas) would peak in the year 2000 and the world then would be on a sharp decline with respect to its major energy resource. In his first book, Deffeyes extended the peak year to 2005.
Well, here we are in early year 2017 with excess oil production and oil prices having dropped from a high of around $110 per barrel in 2010 to a low of about $32 per barrel in 2016 amid Middle East and Russian politics. [Current 2017 oil prices are in the range of marginally economical $50 per barrel.] And in fact, Exxon, the major producer in the United States recently announced they are giving up on giant reserves of heavy oil in Alberta, Canada in favor of more economical shale oil in Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota. The politically troubled area of the Orinoco in Venezuela also has large reserves of less viable heavy oil. The search for oil in arctic Alaska is also under economic constraint. [In 2016, U.S. oil production was on the order of 3.26 billion barrels.]
So what if the world is really running out of oil? The author points out that we would be hard pressed to find economic substitutes to run cars, trains, boats, and planes, as well as sourcing a ready alternative for manufacturing most plastics and many fertilizers. Other extensive uses of oil include fibers, solvents, pesticides, and sealants. And with auto sales setting new records worldwide and rapidly expanding populations in certain parts of Africa and in the Far East, not to mention excess migrants into the U.S. and to Europe, the demand for energy multiplies.
And what are the alternative energy sources? As Deffeyes notes coal has been a standard cancer causing pollutant for centuries. Water in the form of rivers and tides also have long provided a limited amount of energy. More recently experiments involve wind, solar, and geothermal power all of which are not especially efficient in terms of providing large amounts of energy. The author also mentions nuclear energy (uranium) which has been declared basically hazardous and problematic with processing and with source supplies. Other remote energy possibilities include hydrogen fusion, biofuels (land andmarine), "clean" coal, and so on.
Deffeyes concludes that in the short term, natural gas (shale gas), coal (gasification), and uranium are the viable alternatives for the United States. But he asks the question: is the present-day human population already larger than the Earth's steady-state carrying capacity.
