This historic book may have numerous typos and missing text. Purchasers can download a free scanned copy of the original book (without typos) from the publisher. Not indexed. Not illustrated. 1915 edition. Excerpt: ... on the road." And if they are asked how a past event of this I kind can have any effect upon their present safety they will reply quite confidently: "Oh! there has never been an instance of the same accident being repeated the next day." Upon what do they base their conclusion? Simply upon the chances of ...
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This historic book may have numerous typos and missing text. Purchasers can download a free scanned copy of the original book (without typos) from the publisher. Not indexed. Not illustrated. 1915 edition. Excerpt: ... on the road." And if they are asked how a past event of this I kind can have any effect upon their present safety they will reply quite confidently: "Oh! there has never been an instance of the same accident being repeated the next day." Upon what do they base their conclusion? Simply upon the chances of probability. Yet these chances of probability were quite as many on the eve of the accident. If we suppose the number of accidents that take place in a year to be represented by tie figure X, there is nothing to prove that this number can not be increased by an unlookedfor disastrous series; and the catastrophe of the day before can, under no consideration, be regarded as a guaranty of safety for the morrow. Nevertheless, those who reason in this wise are not altogether in the wrong; tho their deduction is entirely false, the conclusion that follows it may be true. There is little chance of the same accident being repeated for the reason that on the morrow of a catastrophe the super-excited attention of the public caused by the painful incidents of the disaster prompts the taking of measures tending to prevent a repetition. Later on, when the painful impression is effaced and the remembrance of the horrors has faded, there is more likelihood of imprudence or relaxing of authority. The sole validity in this kind of dicer's security lies in this way of reasoning, and not in the superstition which consists in representing mischance as something sinister not likely to pass twice by the same road. This belief is as false as the opposite conviction, which consists in hoping that the intervention of good fortune may be brought about if we can but reproduce a certain set of circumstances already known to be propitious. ( Good fortune, ...
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Seller's Description:
Very Good in Good dust jacket. Red boards w/ gilded titling and decoration on spine. From the "Mental Efficiency Series" DJ is edgeworn and rubbed. Professional book dealer since 1975. All orders are processed promptly and packaged with the utmost care. Satisfaction guaranteed.
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